2.5 Games...How Many is That, Really?
I'm writing this now basically for my own benefit.
Anyone who reads my blog...ever...knows that I like to riff on the Detroit Tigers, seeing as I watch every game and notice a lot of things. Things I like to make note of for my future self to look back on.
The Tigers are 2.5 games back of the Yankees in the Wild Card.
At this point in the season, there are 12 games left. In two weeks, whatever I write about here will already have happened. The Tigers will have won the amount of games they're going to win, and so will have the Yankees.
Whether or not that means postseasons for either of them is completely out of my hands.
With 12 games left, the Tigers could finish 83-79, 95-67, or somewhere in between there. My guess is the last one. At this point in the season, the Tigers have lost the same amount of games they lost last year (a last year that included a 5 game losing streak to end the season). The Yankees could finish 85-77, 98-64, or somewhere between there. Last year's Yankees won 97 games. This year's Yankees can only lose one more game if they are to match the total number of losses they had last year.
What I wanted to do was look at the remaining schedules for both teams and see what the Tigers would have to do to overtake the infernal Yanks.
Realistically, the Yankees will probably win 8 of their last 13 games. That's a winning percentage of .615, which is basically on point for the way they've been playing in the second half.
Let's assume the [Yanks] are going to lose at least one (they have one more game to play than the Tigers, so let's assume they lose the last game of the season)game. Ok? The Tigers are essentially 2 games back. With this 12 game run, and the Yankees winning 8 of those, the Tigers have to win 10 of 12 to tie. That sounds almost impossible, doesn't it?
Well, yeah. Kinda. But, the Tigers HAVE just won 10 of 12.
Let's say the kitties win 9 of 12? The Yanks have to then go 7 and 6 - Still fairly possible.
Tigers win 8 of 12? Yankees have to have a losing record this last push, and go 6 and 7.
Honestly, I don't see that happening.
HOWEVER.
The Yankees have won 9 of their last 11, and are bound to fall back just a little. They have two series left against the Orioles, against whom they're only 4-8 this year. The other two teams they face, the Blue Jays and Devil Rays, are both basically .500 against the Bombers this season. Statistically, the Yankees are a favorite to come out of the push with a losing record, based on their performance earlier this year.
The Tigers have won 10 of their last 12, and you could assume they're due to fall back to Earth as well. Here's my exception to that. The Yankees have the best record in baseball in the 2007 season's second half. The Tigers are 2 games under .500 since the All-Star break. They've only started playing exceptionally well in the past two or so weeks. If anyone tells you winning streaks can be tiring, they're right - unless you had a block of losing streaks right before one.
The Tigers are tired of losing.
The Tigers lost for 12 straight seasons until last year. They only just guaranteed their second winning season in the past 14 years yesterday, with win 82.
The Tigers are tired of losing.
Every player on our team will play his heart out to get to October, will give his all just for the opportunity to MAYBE have a chance in two weeks. The Yankees have all but considered themselves shoe-ins, and are already looking past the season, past the playoffs, to the World Series (which could bring Roger Clemens' return season to a miracle close).
The Yankees know they can lose a few.
The Tigers know they can't lose any.
It's going to be interesting.
But all I can tell anyone is that the Yankees are going to have to catch the ball before they can run with it.
Anyone who reads my blog...ever...knows that I like to riff on the Detroit Tigers, seeing as I watch every game and notice a lot of things. Things I like to make note of for my future self to look back on.
The Tigers are 2.5 games back of the Yankees in the Wild Card.
At this point in the season, there are 12 games left. In two weeks, whatever I write about here will already have happened. The Tigers will have won the amount of games they're going to win, and so will have the Yankees.
Whether or not that means postseasons for either of them is completely out of my hands.
With 12 games left, the Tigers could finish 83-79, 95-67, or somewhere in between there. My guess is the last one. At this point in the season, the Tigers have lost the same amount of games they lost last year (a last year that included a 5 game losing streak to end the season). The Yankees could finish 85-77, 98-64, or somewhere between there. Last year's Yankees won 97 games. This year's Yankees can only lose one more game if they are to match the total number of losses they had last year.
What I wanted to do was look at the remaining schedules for both teams and see what the Tigers would have to do to overtake the infernal Yanks.
Realistically, the Yankees will probably win 8 of their last 13 games. That's a winning percentage of .615, which is basically on point for the way they've been playing in the second half.
Let's assume the [Yanks] are going to lose at least one (they have one more game to play than the Tigers, so let's assume they lose the last game of the season)game. Ok? The Tigers are essentially 2 games back. With this 12 game run, and the Yankees winning 8 of those, the Tigers have to win 10 of 12 to tie. That sounds almost impossible, doesn't it?
Well, yeah. Kinda. But, the Tigers HAVE just won 10 of 12.
Let's say the kitties win 9 of 12? The Yanks have to then go 7 and 6 - Still fairly possible.
Tigers win 8 of 12? Yankees have to have a losing record this last push, and go 6 and 7.
Honestly, I don't see that happening.
HOWEVER.
The Yankees have won 9 of their last 11, and are bound to fall back just a little. They have two series left against the Orioles, against whom they're only 4-8 this year. The other two teams they face, the Blue Jays and Devil Rays, are both basically .500 against the Bombers this season. Statistically, the Yankees are a favorite to come out of the push with a losing record, based on their performance earlier this year.
The Tigers have won 10 of their last 12, and you could assume they're due to fall back to Earth as well. Here's my exception to that. The Yankees have the best record in baseball in the 2007 season's second half. The Tigers are 2 games under .500 since the All-Star break. They've only started playing exceptionally well in the past two or so weeks. If anyone tells you winning streaks can be tiring, they're right - unless you had a block of losing streaks right before one.
The Tigers are tired of losing.
The Tigers lost for 12 straight seasons until last year. They only just guaranteed their second winning season in the past 14 years yesterday, with win 82.
The Tigers are tired of losing.
Every player on our team will play his heart out to get to October, will give his all just for the opportunity to MAYBE have a chance in two weeks. The Yankees have all but considered themselves shoe-ins, and are already looking past the season, past the playoffs, to the World Series (which could bring Roger Clemens' return season to a miracle close).
The Yankees know they can lose a few.
The Tigers know they can't lose any.
It's going to be interesting.
But all I can tell anyone is that the Yankees are going to have to catch the ball before they can run with it.
Labels: tigers
2 Comments:
It's about time you wrote about them Tigers!! They're giving me an ulcer, but enjoying every game. Are we giving up winning the Central....?
If they sweep Cleveland, they're 1.5 out and in better position to win the division than winning the wild card. I know they haven't put together a huge winning streak, but you did point out they won 10 of 12. Wasn't their last long streak in last years playoff when the won 7 straight..? They need the good starting pitching and that means leaving Bonderman and Miller out of the rotation.
What? Nothing about the choking Mariners? Where's the love?
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